Comprehensive Economic Model of the Holy Roman Empire of Frankia 1. Monetary Layer (The Heart of the System) 1.1. Coin Issuance (Denarius Columbae) Actors: 25 Argentarius Bishops. Variables: Silver production (P): annual extraction per vicariate. Mintage quota (Q): imperial cap per bishop. Coin weight (CW): ranges from 25.0g to 28.0g. Rules: Each bishop mints coins at a fixed weight (specific to their see). Heavier coins (>27g) are hoarded by merchants and nobles. Lighter coins (<26g) circulate among peasants and small markets. Systemic effects: The gap between face value and metallic value creates arbitrage. Hoarding reduces circulation velocity, triggering deflation. 1.2. Credit System (Mateiae and Mateones) Actor: Houses of Saint Matthew (private but imperially regulated). Mechanism: Accept silver deposits. Issue credit using skulls of Saint Matthew as collateral. Can lend more than their actual silver reserves (fractional-reserve banking). Effects: Liquidity multiplier: even with scarce silver, credit keeps trade alive. Risk: mass default can trigger a bank run and systemic collapse. Power concentration: the 3 great mateones can effectively control monetary policy. 2. Productive and Commercial Layer 2.1. Messarkt (Permanent Market District) Function: distribution hub for goods and services. Agents: stallholders, itinerant merchants, craftsmen, large landowners. Flows: Agricultural goods (grain, cattle) → sold locally. Manufactured goods (textiles, tools, weapons) → regional trade. Luxury goods (spices, metals, walrus ivory) → interregional and international trade. Economic impact: Increases division of labour. Generates tax revenue (sales taxes and rents). Attracts foreign merchants, bringing foreign coins and bullion. 2.2. Trade Routes and Logistics Vicariates as nodes: Walrus: exports grain and ivory via the Danube. Pig: exports salt, wool, and meat via the North Sea. Dog: exports ores and military services. Rat: serves as an entrepôt (import/export hub). Crow: financial and administrative centre. Logistical costs: tolls, escorts, warehousing → affect final prices. 3. Fiscal and Distributive Layer 3.1. Tax Collection Responsible: Kaesgaustine Vicars (47). Tax base: Land tax (fiefs and bishoprics). Sales tax (messarkts). Customs duties (trade routes). Minting fee (argentarius bishops). Allocation: 40% → Imperial Treasury (army, infrastructure, bureaucracy). 30% → Church (Ecclesiastical States). 20% → Mateiae (compulsory loans). 10% → Vicariates (local administration). 3.2. Transfers and Subsidies Missionates: private armies funded by nobles, with imperial approval. Military spending → injects currency into the theatre of operations. Plunder → violent redistribution of wealth (local inflationary pressure). Donations to the Church: land and coin → reduce imperial tax base, but increase regime legitimacy. 4. Political and Institutional Layer 4.1. Bishops and Ecclesiastical States Economic power: Control 15% of imperial territory. Cannot sell land, but can levy taxes and administer justice. Receive tithes and donations. Economic effect: Lands are unproductive for the Empire (not directly taxable). Provide social stability (fewer revolts). 4.2. Vicars and Factions Factions: Walrus, Pig, Dog, Rat, Crow. Each defends regional economic interests. Compete for influence over the Emperor and monetary policy. Patronages (Mecenatos): fund the education of future bureaucrats at the Palatine College of Pietra. Create an administrative elite loyal to the factions. Influence resource allocation decisions. 4.3. Debitum Consanguinitatis Network of favours and loyalties: Relatives of the Emperor hold key positions. Share power and resources among themselves. Create political inertia (resistance to reform). 5. Feedback Loops Type Loop Effect Positive (amplifying) Increased silver production → more minting → more trade → more taxes → more mining investment Economic expansion Negative (stabilising) Heavy coins hoarded → scarcity of circulating coin → deflation → trade decline → lower tax revenue → reduced minting Controlled contraction Political-economic Faction gains power → appoints allied vicars → diverts resources → weakens rivals → concentrates wealth Regional imbalance Institutional Church receives land → reduces imperial tax base → Emperor raises taxes elsewhere → revolt → more donations to Church to pacify Erosion of imperial power 6. External Shocks to Simulate Wars: missionates mobilised → resource diversion → local inflation. Famine: crop failure → lower tax revenue → rising debt at mateiae. New mine discovery: silver surplus → inflationary pressure. Emperor's death: succession crisis → decision paralysis → revenue drop. Plague: population decline → production and trade collapse. 7. Input Variables for Machinations Category Variables Unit Monetary Annual issuance, average weight, hoarding rate kg/year, g, % Banking Deposits, loans, interest rate tonnes of silver, % Commercial Grain, textiles, ores, salt volumes tonnes/year Fiscal Tax rates, public expenditure % of imperial GDP Demographic Total, active, urban/rural population millions Geopolitical Military spending, plunder, territorial losses tonnes of silver/year 8. Example 25-Year Simulation Timeline Year Event Expected Effect 1–5 Increased silver extraction Issuance grows, trade accelerates 6–10 Hoarding of heavy coins Deflation, mateiae expand credit 11–15 War with nomads Military spending spikes, inflation 16–20 General famine Output falls, debt rises 21–25 Monetary reform (new standard weight) Stabilisation, wealth redistribution 9. Suggested Machinations Structure Stock Nodes: Silver in mines Coins in circulation Hoarded coins Mateiae credit Public debt Flow Nodes: Extraction → Minting → Circulation → Trade → Taxation → Spending Deposits → Loans → Investment Conversion Nodes: Coin weight ↔ Face value ↔ Purchasing power Agricultural output ↔ Grain price ↔ Tax Event Nodes: War, famine, mine discovery, imperial succession Output Indicators: Estimated GDP, inflation/deflation, wealth concentration, political stability (proxy: revolt frequency).
