Create a playable financial unit-economics simulation for a home appliance insurance/protection product called Farabimeh.
The model should simulate the business month by month. One simulation step equals one month.
Build the model in six sections:
1. CUSTOMER ACQUISITION
Create an automatic Source called "Monthly Leads".
Create an interactive parameter called "Monthly Leads" with an initial value of 100000.
Create an interactive parameter called "Attach Rate" with an initial value of 5%.
Calculate:
New Policies = Monthly Leads × Attach Rate
Send converted customers into a Pool called "Active Policies".
Create a Drain called "Acquisition Failure" for customers who do not purchase.
2. ACTIVE POLICY PORTFOLIO
The Active Policies Pool should accumulate new policies over time.
Create an interactive parameter called "Monthly Churn Rate" with an initial value of 2%.
Each month, remove Monthly Churn Rate × Active Policies from the Active Policies Pool and send them to a Drain called "Churned Policies".
3. REVENUE
Create an interactive parameter called "Monthly Premium Per Policy" with an initial value of 100000.
Create a Register called "Premium Revenue".
Calculate:
Premium Revenue = Active Policies × Monthly Premium Per Policy
Create a Pool called "Cash Balance" to represent accumulated company cash.
Add Premium Revenue to Cash Balance every month.
4. CLAIMS
Create an interactive parameter called "Monthly Claim Frequency" with an initial value of 1.5%.
Calculate:
Monthly Claims = Active Policies × Monthly Claim Frequency
Create a Pool called "Claims".
Create an interactive parameter called "Average Claim Cost" with an initial value of 2000000.
Calculate:
Claim Cost = Monthly Claims × Average Claim Cost
Remove Claim Cost from Cash Balance and send it to a Drain called "Claims Expense".
5. OTHER COSTS
Create the following interactive parameters:
CAC Per New Policy = 50000
Commission Rate = 15%
Monthly Service Cost Per Active Policy = 10000
Fixed Monthly OPEX = 500000000
Create Registers for:
CAC Cost = New Policies × CAC Per New Policy
Commission Cost = Premium Revenue × Commission Rate
Service Cost = Active Policies × Monthly Service Cost Per Active Policy
Total Costs = Claim Cost + CAC Cost + Commission Cost + Service Cost + Fixed Monthly OPEX
Create separate Drains for:
CAC Expense
Commission Expense
Service Expense
Fixed OPEX
Remove these costs from Cash Balance every month.
6. PROFITABILITY DASHBOARD
Create Registers called:
Total Revenue
Total Costs
Monthly Profit
Cumulative Profit
Loss Ratio
Profit Margin
Contribution Margin
Revenue Per Active Policy
Cost Per Active Policy
Use the following calculations:
Total Revenue = Premium Revenue
Monthly Profit = Total Revenue - Total Costs
Cumulative Profit should accumulate Monthly Profit over time.
Loss Ratio = Claim Cost / Premium Revenue
Profit Margin = Monthly Profit / Total Revenue
Contribution Margin = Premium Revenue - Claim Cost - CAC Cost - Commission Cost - Service Cost
Create a Pool called "Cumulative Profit" and update it every month.
Show the following values in charts:
Active Policies
New Policies
Premium Revenue
Claim Cost
Total Costs
Monthly Profit
Cumulative Profit
Loss Ratio
Profit Margin
Organize the diagram visually from left to right:
Customer Acquisition → Active Portfolio → Revenue → Claims and Costs → Profitability.
Make all major business assumptions interactive so I can change them during simulation.
Allow decimal values where necessary.
Use clear labels and keep the model modular so that later it can be duplicated for four product tiers: Firoozeh, Yaghoot, Zomorrod, and Almas.