[Webinar] Lucky Catch (Merge Mansion)

This diagram models the Lucky Catch event from Merge Mansion, in which the player merges fishing items to catch fish. 

The goal of the diagram is to predict how long it takes to complete the event, i.e. to collect enough fish to reach the final event level. This information can then be used to make inferences about how much players might be willing to spend (for gems or real money), and which purchases might be most valuable to them.

The diagram uses external data and assumptions about players as control points to test different scenarios and gameplay values. It also requires many thousands of runs to obtain accurate results, using Predictions and the Monte Carlo method.