Speculation

Individuals buy or hoard a good with the sole purpose of selling it later, expecting that it will grow in value and earn them a profit.
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This diagram models an economic system focused on the market dynamics of a rare item, highlighting the flow of the item's market price based on speculative trading behaviors. It utilizes a source node to continuously generate resources, simulating an inflow of the rare item into the market, which are then directed towards a pool that represents the "Market Price of Item." The market price is adjusted by a random factor between 50 and 100 to mimic real market conditions, utilizing a register labeled "Starting Market Price" to initial set a random market price range. Another register, "Speculator % profit if they sell now," calculates the potential profit percentage for a speculator selling the item at the current market price, based on the formula that calculates the percentage increase over the original price.

Resource connections between the source, pool (market price), and a drain represent the item's flow into the market and its consumption or sale, affecting the market price. The diagram incorporates randomness in the flow of resources to and from the market price pool to simulate market volatility, with dice roll formulas dictating the variability of this flow. State connections are used to adjust the market price and to relay the current price to the profit calculation register, ensuring the system dynamically reflects changes based on the inflow and outflow of the item. This setup captures the essence of speculative behavior in player auctions or marketplaces, where the timing of selling a rare item can significantly impact a player's profit, demonstrating the potential for speculative bubbles within an in-game economy.