[ZeitMach Live] Will more than 30,000 Americans go into hospital with flu in a single week before 30 January 2027?
About this model
Every week, how many Americans go into hospital with confirmed flu (CDC's national hospital reports): the black line is what actually happened up to the last reading on 26 September 2026, the pink line is what this model forecast on 13 June 2026, and the blue line is the same forecast correcting itself as each real week arrives — on 26 September 2026 reality was 2,572 against a forecast of 916. Press Play to see forecast versus reality week by week (33 weeks to 30 January 2027); press Forecast, not Play, to get the chance — the green line's Mean at the last step is the share of 100 runs in which some week tops 30,000, and as this was built it reads about 29%. Honesty rule: the 13 June 2026 forecast was built only from weeks up to 13 June 2026 and never sees anything later, the self-correcting line only learns from weeks that have already happened, and after the last reading the real line is held flat rather than invented; the orange "one possible winter" line replays every real week and only rolls its own dice after that. Drag "How many people this winter's flu can reach (100 = a typical year)" to try a milder or a nastier strain. Honest caveat: the model learned from just four flu seasons (2022-23 to 2025-26), whose busiest weeks from mid-June to late January were 26,795, 21,662, 41,400, 42,505 — two over the line, two under — so how big this winter gets is the biggest unknown, and the newest week is provisional (CDC fills it in over the following weeks).
“[ZeitMach Live] Will more than 30,000 Americans go into hospital with flu in a single week before 30 January 2027?” is a diagram in the Machinations Community by Mihai Gheza (Developer). It is built from 84 components, which puts it in the Complex size range (up to 20 components is Simple, up to 60 Moderate, more than that Complex).
It has been used by the Community: members have viewed it 43 times. It was created in September 2026 and last edited on October 5, 2026.
Open the diagram in the Machinations app and press Play to watch the resources move, adjust its values to test how the system responds, or remix it to make an editable copy in My diagrams.
