[ZeitMach Live] Will Norway register more new electric cars in 2026 than in 2025 (169,569)?
About this model
How many brand-new electric cars Norway registers in 2026, as a running total month by month, counted by Statistics Norway: the red line is what actually happened (last reading September 2026, held flat after that — no month is ever made up), the blue line is what we forecast in January 2026 from the 2025 counts, the orange line is that forecast correcting itself from the months already counted, and the purple line is one possible future from the last reading. They join a fleet of 945,182 electric cars at the end of 2025, about 32% of all cars in Norway. Press Play to see forecast versus reality; press Forecast, not Play, to get the chance — the green line's Mean at the last month is the share of 100 runs in which 2026 ends above 2025's 169,569 cars (about 69% as of this update), and the two levers add or remove cars every month or make December's rush bigger or smaller. The January 2026 forecast uses nothing counted after December 2025: it assumes 2026 matches the last 12 months (169,569 cars), spread over the year like 2024 and 2025, and the self-correction only ever learns from months already counted. The possible future starts from the year so far and spreads the rest of 2026 like 2025, the last year that ended in an electric-car VAT step, because 2026 ends in one too: under the budget deal of December 2025, electric cars pay VAT on everything above 150,000 kroner from 1 January 2027 instead of above 300,000 kroner (the 2027 budget and the EFTA surveillance authority still have to approve it). So it expects about 36,667 cars this December, in line with the rushes before the steps of January 2023 (32,714 cars) and January 2026 (34,311), while the Decembers of 2021, 2023, 2024, with no step, were 8,958 to 13,803. If the months before December go as expected, 2026 needs at least 25,024 cars in December to beat 2025, so the answer turns on that rush; slide the December lever down to about -25,000 if you think it will not come. There is no official forecast. Norway's car importers and road traffic information council (BIL and OFV) forecast 160,000 new cars of every fuel for 2026, about 155,000 electric cars on Statistics Norway's count; BIL's September update calls that the result at a normal pace, so without a December rush it answers no, and BIL itself names a rush before New Year as a possible upside, which this board expects. Honest uncertainty: the spread comes from how far the same rescaling rule, with the two years before each year as its pattern, missed in 2018-2025 (a month typically strays about 1,297 cars, a whole year can run about 4,716 cars a month busier or quieter, and December alone has swung by about 17,248 cars because buyers rush to register before New Year tax changes); it is not re-measured for the tax-step pattern, because only one earlier step year exists to test that on, so read the chance as a fair guide, not a promise.
“[ZeitMach Live] Will Norway register more new electric cars in 2026 than in 2025 (169,569)?” is a diagram in the Machinations Community by Mihai Gheza (Developer). It is built from 59 components, which puts it in the Moderate size range (up to 20 components is Simple, up to 60 Moderate, more than that Complex).
It has been used by the Community: members have viewed it 10 times. It was created in September 2026 and last edited on October 5, 2026.
You can open the diagram in the Machinations app, press Play to watch how resources move through it, change its values to see how the system responds, or remix it to get an editable copy in your own My diagrams.
