[ZeitMach Live] Will America's commercial oil tanks hold more than 425 million barrels of crude at Christmas 2026?
About this model
This board follows how much crude oil is sitting in America's commercial storage tanks (the government's emergency reserve left out), week by week from 19 June 2026 to Christmas 2026, and asks one question: will there be more than 425 million barrels on the last weekly reading of the year? The pink line is what actually happened, from the official US government weekly count (last reading 25 September 2026: 427.3 million barrels); after that reading it is simply held flat, because the future has not happened yet. The grey line is the forecast our model made on 19 June 2026 and never changed: on 25 September 2026 it expected 391.5 million barrels, so it is off by 35.8 million barrels. The blue line is the same model correcting itself — each week it keeps half of the surprise it has already seen — and it is off by 3.3 million barrels; the week after the last reading it takes the whole remaining surprise on board, so its future starts from today's real reading. Press Play to watch forecast versus reality; press Forecast, not Play, to get the chance: Forecast runs the board 100 times, each run rolling its own future, and the Mean of the green line at the last week is the share of runs that end above the line (about 62% as this was built). Numbers on the board are in thousand barrels, so 425,000 is 425 million. The honesty rule: the 19 June 2026 forecast uses nothing after that day — its weekly flows are the average of each calendar month over the five years before it, and the self-correction only ever learns from weeks that have already been reported, then stops. The dial "How hard refineries run from now on (1 = normal)" asks what happens if refineries burn through crude a little faster or slower from today. The honest uncertainty: the week-to-week wobble (about 4.2 million barrels) and how much whole autumns differ from each other (about 1.1 million barrels a week) are measured from past years, but the model knows nothing about news — a hurricane, a refinery outage or an export surge can move storage by 15 to 20 million barrels in a single week, as it did in early August — so treat the chance as a range of about ±10 points, not a precise number.
“[ZeitMach Live] Will America's commercial oil tanks hold more than 425 million barrels of crude at Christmas 2026?” is a diagram in the Machinations Community by Mihai Gheza (Developer). It is built from 53 components, which puts it in the Moderate size range (up to 20 components is Simple, up to 60 Moderate, more than that Complex).
It has been used by the Community: members have viewed it 104 times and remixed it 1 time. It was created in September 2026 and last edited on October 5, 2026.
Open the diagram in the Machinations app and press Play to watch the resources move, adjust its values to test how the system responds, or remix it to make an editable copy in My diagrams.
