Policy impact assessment
Governments and regulators are expected to show what a new policy will do before it passes, and the OECD reports that impact assessment is required in a growing number of countries. Most are tables and narrative, and the knock-on effects of a policy are the part they explain worst.
Show the knock-on effects, not only the totals.
What you can do with it
Map the system
Draw budgets, people and incentives as stocks and flows, and the feedback loops that a table of totals hides.
Compare scenarios
Set Levers for the policy options, Play each and Forecast the spread, with the uncertainty visible.
Explain it to decision-makers
Share or embed the diagram, so ministers, analysts and the public can follow the reasoning and challenge it.
Ask what if, live
Move a Lever such as the size of a subsidy in a meeting and watch the effect on budget and uptake.
Show feedback loops
See how a policy changes behaviour, and how that behaviour changes the policy's own cost.
Build a first draft fast
Describe the policy to the AI Agent and correct the first diagram it builds with your experts.
Play a live example: a purchase subsidy
A public budget pays a subsidy on every purchase of a clean technology. Adoption grows as more people own it, and the budget drains faster as uptake rises. Press Play, then move a Lever to change the subsidy.
Watch the budget and the number of owners together. Early on, few people buy and the budget barely moves. As ownership spreads, more people see the technology around them and adoption speeds up, and every new purchase draws another subsidy from the same budget. The two curves are linked: success is exactly what drains the money.
Raise the subsidy and uptake jumps, but the budget runs out years sooner, which can stop the programme just as it was working. Lower it and the budget lasts, but adoption crawls. Somewhere between the two is the setting a decision-maker actually wants, and the diagram lets them find it in a meeting instead of waiting for a new spreadsheet. The model helps you understand and document the reasoning; it does not replace the impact study itself.
Test the policy before it becomes law
Model budgets, behaviour and feedback loops, then Forecast each scenario so the impact study can show its reasoning.
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