Machinations

Loot box and gacha probability disclosure

South Korea has required paid random-item odds to be disclosed since 22 March 2024, and since August 2025 special litigation rules allow up to triple damages. Pity counters, guarantees and rate-ups make the odds a player really faces differ from the rate on the screen, and a wrong number is now a legal risk.

Prove your drop rates.

What you can do with it

  • Model the real odds

    Draw pulls, pity counters, guaranteed drops, rate-ups and nested boxes as one diagram, so you can see how they combine.

  • Forecast what players get

    Play many pulls and Forecast the spread: the effective rate of a featured item and how many pulls the unluckiest players need.

  • Show your working

    Share or embed the diagram, so economy, LiveOps and legal read the same model behind the number you publish.

  • Compare rate-up designs

    Move a Lever to change a base rate or a pity threshold and Forecast again, side by side with the current design.

  • Start from your drop table

    Describe the table to the AI Agent, or give it a spreadsheet, and correct the first diagram it builds.

  • Check a change before the patch

    Test a new banner or a changed guarantee before it reaches players, instead of after the complaints.

Play a live example: a gacha banner with pity

Each pull has a small chance of a rare item, and a pity counter guarantees one when it reaches its limit. Press Play, then move a Lever to see how the odds respond.

Start by watching the pity counter and the rares collected side by side. Most pulls land a common item, and the pity counter climbs until it forces a rare drop and resets. That rhythm, not the base rate, is what a player actually lives through, and it only shows once you Play many pulls rather than one.

Try the Levers one at a time. Lower the pity threshold and the rares collected rise sharply, even with the base rate untouched. Raise the base rate and pity triggers less often, because the counter rarely gets a chance to fill. Disclosure rules ask for odds a player can trust, and this is how you check that the number you publish matches the system you built. The model helps you understand and document the numbers; it does not replace legal advice.

Check the drop rate before you publish it

Model pulls, pity and guarantees, then Forecast how many pulls the lucky and the unlucky need for the item you advertise.

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