What is success to the successful?

Success to the successful is a system archetype where two parties compete for the same limited resources. Whoever does a little better early on receives more, and then does better still. The gap widens even if the two were equally capable at the start.

How it works

Two reinforcing loops are coupled by a shared pool of resources. A gain for one is a loss for the other, so one loop grows as the other shrinks. Markets show this in network effects and in how investors fund companies that already look strong. Without an outside force, the result is concentration. Remedies include rules that cap the share, support for the weaker party, or periodic resets so that early luck does not set the whole outcome.

The pattern is not always unfair, since the leader may truly be better. The test is whether the gap is growing faster than the difference in merit would explain. If so, the loop, not the quality, is doing the work.

Example

Say two sales teams share a budget of 100 each quarter, split in proportion to last quarter's results. Team A starts with sales of 55 and Team B with 45, so A gets 55 and B gets 45. Because A has more budget, its next results are higher, say 60 against 40, and the next quarter it gets 60 and B only 40. The split keeps moving toward A, though the teams were nearly equal. This is an illustration with round numbers.

How to model it in Machinations

Model each competitor as a Pool and let a Register split a shared Source in proportion to each Pool's size. Use state connections so each Pool's growth depends on its share. Play many times at once with slightly different starting values, and chart both Pools to see how small early gaps become large.