What is reference mode?

A reference mode is the observed or expected pattern of a key variable over time that a modeling project sets out to understand. It is usually a sketch or a real data series that includes both the past and a plausible future. It matters because it keeps the model focused on a defined problem and gives a clear test of success.

How it works

The reference mode is the first output of a modeling project. The team picks the few variables that define the problem, draws or collects them as a behavior-over-time graph, and agrees on the time span. The span should be long enough to show the full pattern, including the origin of the trouble and where it might go if nothing changes.

The reference mode then guides the next step, the dynamic hypothesis, which proposes the feedback structure that could produce this pattern. After building the model, the team checks whether its output reproduces the reference mode, which is part of validation. If the model cannot reproduce it, the structure is missing something. If the model reproduces it for the wrong reasons, further tests are needed. A reference mode also protects against building a model of everything, because anything that does not help explain the pattern can be left out.

Example

Say a support team sees its ticket backlog sit near 200 for a year, then climb to 900 over six months, and fall to 300 after hiring. The reference mode is the whole line: flat, steep rise, partial recovery. A model that only gets the average of 450 right has missed the point. The model must show a long calm period, a fast rise, and a recovery that does not return to the old level. This is an illustration with round numbers.

How to model it in Machinations

Keep the real series you recorded, for example in a spreadsheet, and chart the Pool that represents the same quantity. Play the diagram and judge the match by shape, timing, and size. Use a Lever to adjust a parameter and bring the model's line closer to the reference mode.