Model a single villager's...

About this model

Model a single villager's health loop in a survival game to detect death spirals.

POOLS: - Physical HP (starts at 100, cap 100) - Mental HP (starts at 100, cap 100) - Active Conditions (starts at 1) - Cascade Depth (starts at 0, tracks how deep the treatment chain goes)

SOURCES: - "Wave Spawns": adds 1 condition to Active Conditions every 2 turns (average of outbreak/calm cycle). Each new condition also adds drain.

DRAINS: - Physical HP drains at 7.6 per active condition per turn. - Mental HP drains at 7.6 * 2.34 = 17.8 per active condition per turn (mental is hit harder).

REGEN (conditional): - If Active Conditions = 0: both HP pools gain +9.9 per turn. - If Active Conditions 0: no regen at all. This is the spiral — once you're sick, you only lose HP.

TREATMENT (player action, happens once per turn): - Consumes 1 from Active Conditions attempt. - Probabilistic gate: 60% chance of CURE (condition removed, Active Conditions -1, Cascade Depth resets to 0). 40% chance of FAIL. - On any treatment (cure or fail): 25% chance of SIDE EFFECT. A side effect adds +1 to Active Conditions AND +1 to Cascade Depth. - Cascade modifier: side effect chance increases by +15% per point of Cascade Depth. So at depth 2 the side effect chance is 25% + 30% = 55%.

DEATH: - If Physical HP or Mental HP reaches 0, the villager is removed (drain both pools to 0, stop all flows).

WHAT I WANT TO SEE: Run for 40 turns. Show me the HP curves and the Active Conditions count over time. I want to see whether a single villager inevitably spirals to death, or if treatment can stabilize them.

"Model a single villager's..." is a public Machinations diagram shared in the Community by Assuyo, with 26 components.

It was created in March 2026 and last edited in March 2026.

Open the diagram in the Machinations app and press Play to watch the resources move, adjust its values to test how the system responds, or remix it to make an editable copy in My diagrams.