Machinations

Climate scenario analysis

IFRS S2 requires climate scenario analysis, and 28 jurisdictions had adopted ISSB standards by April 2026. In the EU, Omnibus I (Directive 2026/470) cut the CSRD to roughly 5,000 to 6,000 companies. Either way, a scenario is only useful if the people reading it can follow how it was reached.

Make transition scenarios readable.

What you can do with it

  • Model the transition

    Draw emissions, abatement spending, carbon cost and capacity as stocks and flows that your finance and sustainability teams share.

  • Forecast each scenario

    Set the carbon price and the pace of abatement as Levers, Play many years and Forecast the spread of cost.

  • Explain the assumptions

    Every assumption is a visible number in the diagram, so an auditor or a board can see what the result depends on.

  • Transition-risk scenarios

    Compare a slow and a fast carbon-price path as scenarios of the same model.

  • Uncertainty included

    Add chance to demand or prices and see a range of outcomes instead of one projected line.

  • Start from your numbers

    Give the AI Agent your emissions workbook and correct the diagram it builds.

Play a live example: a carbon price and abatement plan

A company emits every year, pays for each tonne at a rising carbon price and can invest in abatement that cuts its emissions. Press Play, then move a Lever to change the carbon price.

Follow three things through the years: the tonnes the company emits, the bill it pays for them at the carbon price, and the money it puts into abatement. Abatement cuts emissions, which shrinks the next year's bill, so the spending pays for itself over time. The question every transition plan has to answer is how fast.

Raise the carbon price and the bill grows faster, so abatement pays back sooner and emissions fall more steeply. Keep the price low and the plan stalls, because cutting emissions costs more than paying for them. A board reading one forecast line cannot see this trade-off; reading the diagram, it can see which assumption the whole scenario rests on. The model helps you understand and document the scenarios; it does not replace your reporting or assurance.

Stress-test the transition plan

Model emissions, carbon prices and capacity, then Forecast each climate scenario so the board sees the range, not one line.

  • ISO 27001 certified
  • SSO & SAML
  • GDPR compliant
  • Trustpilot verified
  • Red Herring Top 100
  • Dealroom Rising Star