Trial and error

About this model

This diagram represents a decision-making system where a player interacts with a set of choices, leading to outcomes categorized as "Correct" or "Wrong." At its core, the diagram simulates a trial and error process where the player attempts to find the correct solution from a limited set of options. Players start with an initial choice, facilitated by a source node representing the player's interaction (marked as "Player"), which triggers the decision-making process depicted by the automatic choice gate. This gate probabilistically directs the outcome of each choice into "Correct" or "Wrong" pools, influenced by predefined probabilities—95% likelihood leading to a "Wrong" outcome and a 5% chance for a "Correct" result.

The system includes feedback mechanisms where the accumulation of "Wrong" choices triggers adjustments to the probabilities of future outcomes, simulating a learning or adaptation process. This adjustment is represented by state connections modifying the likelihood of reaching the "Wrong" or "Correct" outcomes based on the count of wrong choices. Additionally, there's a mechanism to increase the count of wrong choices every time a wrong decision is made, effectively demonstrating a cumulative penalty or learning cost as players iterate through choices. The overarching behavior of this diagram emphasizes the exploration of solutions, learning from incorrect attempts, and gradually adjusting strategies to maximize the probability of a correct outcome.

This public Machinations diagram, “Trial and error”, was shared in the Machinations Community by Cezar Cocias.

You can open the original diagram in the Machinations app, press Play to watch how resources move through it, and change its values to see how the system responds.